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Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis and Contingency Modelling for Projects

A single point completion date hides how likely a project is to actually finish on time. This course teaches quantitative schedule risk analysis, using ranges and simulation to produce confidence based dates and defensible time contingency. It is aimed at planners and project managers on complex African infrastructure and capital projects.

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What you will be able to do

  • Build a risk ready schedule suitable for quantitative analysis.
  • Assign duration ranges and risk events to schedule activities.
  • Run simulation to produce confidence based completion dates.
  • Interpret results to size realistic schedule contingency.
  • Identify the activities and risks that drive schedule uncertainty.
  • Communicate probabilistic dates to sponsors and stakeholders.

Course outline

  1. 01Limits of single point schedules
  2. 02Preparing a risk ready schedule
  3. 03Duration ranges and risk events
  4. 04Simulation and confidence levels
  5. 05Sizing schedule contingency
  6. 06Identifying schedule risk drivers
  7. 07Communicating probabilistic dates
  8. 08Updating the analysis as work proceeds

Who should attend

Project planners, schedulers, risk practitioners and project managers who need defensible completion dates and time contingency on complex projects.

Dates, venues and fees

DatesVenueDaysFeeCalendarRegister
13 to 14 Oct 2026Johannesburg2R10,000Register
14 to 15 Oct 2026Cape Town2R10,000Register
15 to 16 Oct 2026Durban2R10,000Register
19 to 20 Oct 2026Pretoria2R10,000Register
20 to 21 Oct 2026Windhoek2US$1,100Register
21 to 22 Oct 2026Gaborone2US$1,100Register
22 to 23 Oct 2026Maseru2US$1,100Register
26 to 27 Oct 2026Mbabane2US$1,100Register
27 to 28 Oct 2026Lusaka2US$1,100Register
28 to 29 Oct 2026Harare2US$1,100Register
29 to 30 Oct 2026Lilongwe2US$1,100Register
2 to 3 Nov 2026Blantyre2US$1,100Register
3 to 4 Nov 2026Mozambique2US$1,100Register
4 to 5 Nov 2026Nairobi2US$1,100Register
5 to 6 Nov 2026Dar es Salaam2US$1,100Register
9 to 10 Nov 2026Kigali2US$1,100Register
10 to 11 Nov 2026Kampala2US$1,100Register
11 to 12 Nov 2026Accra2US$1,100Register
12 to 13 Nov 2026Lagos2US$1,100Register
16 to 17 Nov 2026Cairo2US$1,100Register
17 to 18 Nov 2026Mauritius2US$1,100Register
18 to 19 Nov 2026Dubai2US$1,100Register
19 to 20 Nov 2026Online2US$900Register

Fees are per delegate. South African venues are priced in rand; other locations and online in US dollars. Fees exclude 15% VAT where applicable. Group bookings of three or more delegates from the same organisation qualify for a reduced rate; contact us for a quotation.

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Next session
19 to 21 Oct 2026
Venue
Johannesburg
3 day programme
FromR13,000
See all Project Management courses